Behrouz Nasiri; zahra yarmoradi
Abstract
Abstract[1]
The increase in greenhouse gases in the last few decades has disrupted the climatic balance of the Earth which is called the phenomenon of climate change. The main consequences of climate change will be the increase in global average temperature, the increase of climatic extreme phenomena ...
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Abstract[1]
The increase in greenhouse gases in the last few decades has disrupted the climatic balance of the Earth which is called the phenomenon of climate change. The main consequences of climate change will be the increase in global average temperature, the increase of climatic extreme phenomena such as floods, storms, hail, thermal waves, sea level rise, melting of polar ice and untimely cold. The use of Statistical Downscaling Models for estimating climatic fluctuations allows weather data to be generated at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Such capabilities have contributed greatly to studying local and regional climatic fluctuations. In this research, the efficiency of LARS-WG model was examined and evaluated for generating and simulating daily temperature, sunny hours and rainfall data in Lorestan province using MAE, T-STUDENT, MAE, R2 statistical parameters and their subsequent changes in the future became apparent too. The results showed that at 99% confidence level, there is no significant difference between actual data and data obtained from the model and the model has the necessary efficiency in generating daily data. After making sure of the model’s efficiency, the outputs of the HADCM3 model were used and the daily temperature, radiation and precipitation data for the base period (1961-2005) were simulated under three scenarios of A1B (mid-range scenario), A2 (maximum scenario) and B1 (scenario Minimum).Based on the HADCM3 model estimates for the scenarios under study in future periods, the average maximum temperature and precipitation of the province would increase about (0.9 to 1.3 degrees) and (12.04 percent), respectively, and average sunny hours would decrease by about 0.6.Also, despite lower changes in maximum temperature than the minimum temperature, the average temperature increase in this period is expected. According to these results, the climatic conditions of Lorestan province in the next 50 years will have a significant difference with the current situation and long-term strategic plans seem necessary to manage these conditions.
[1] - به دلیل کیفیت نامناسب متن چکیده مبسوط انگلیسیِ ارائه شده توسط نویسنده مسئول مقاله، نشریه به ناچار اقدام به ترجمه مجدد متن چکیده فارسی و انتشار آن به جای چکیده مبسوط انگلیسی نموده است.
